2008年7月30日星期三

With comprehensive analysis of financial indicators

Enterprises operating profitability mainly reflects business enterprises the ability to create profits. Reflect the profitability of the enterprise's financial indicators are many, but a single indicator of the analysis, investors tend to make the profitability of the enterprises to determine in a vague state. Here, we have introduced two or more of the linkage between the financial indicators, to evaluate the operating results of current business and future profitability, so as to investors to understand the operation of the status quo enterprises provide a clear analysis of ideas.



   1, liabilities and operating profit growth rate with a comprehensive analysis



   Liabilities, operating rate = long-term liabilities / owner's equity, it should reflect the structure of sources of funding and the independence and stability.



   Profit growth = (current net profit - on the period of net profit) / profit on the period, it reflects the profitability of value-added enterprises.



   We will consider the combination of these indicators can be integrated determine the profitability of the enterprise's growth potential. If both growth, although that business has increased investment in external funding, an increase of certain risks, but the rational use of corporate funds, profit has increased its leverage to bring about a certain corporate profits that borrowing Measures is correct. If the decline at the same time that enterprises in reducing the scale of the debt but also to reduce the level of profitability, its profit potential constraints.



   2, current liabilities rate, liquidity ratio, profit growth with a comprehensive analysis



   Current liabilities rate = current liabilities / assets, liquid assets ratio = current assets / assets, profit growth = (current net profit - on the period of net profit) / profit on the stage



   We will consider the combination of the above indicators look at prospects for corporate profits. If the three indicators at the same time improving that business enterprises to expand production, increase production, has increased profits if the flow of current assets and liabilities increased rates lower, but margins improved, the companies that sell good products, supply, management The situation remains good situation if the current liabilities increased, decreased liquidity, lower margins on the production and operation of enterprises deteriorating situation, enterprises will have financial difficulties if the flow rate of current assets and liabilities rate, the decline in margins at the same time , Notes, corporate production and management business is shrinking, corporate earnings prospects are not bright.



   In sum, we find that enterprises will be reflected by the profitability of the financial indicators associated with analysis, show that if the profitability of the enterprises are weakened, then the profitability of the business potential worthy of our discussion, investors should be treated with caution .



   Case Study



   We will use Wo-listed companies analysis system, use the first method, for example analysis. To-day hotel 000428 December 31, 2002 data as an example, we can see that the liabilities of enterprises operating rate by the end of 2001 rose to 1.59 percent in late 2002 of 11.77 percent, but profit growth of -19.8% The downward trend on the borrowing enterprises to enterprises did not bring the expected rewards.

On the road to the investment fundamentals

I do talk about their experiences on it, I was in 1993 the stock market, no computer at that time, his paintings K Line, the paper every night with coordinates of painting. With computers in 1996 to not only painted K-Line. When conditions are very poor, but in good spirits. Zuo Gupiao the first time, basic股评is watching and recreating simple technical analysis of select stocks, good stops on the implementation of strict discipline, in that harsh Bear saved the city itself. 1996 began to do their own research, gradually understand the value of their research, is the beginning of all the 183 stocks all do it again, out of which the second year that the shield 2 / 3 of the future, every new stock issues, I will carefully Look at the brochure, should be included in the list of follow-up study, and no longer have to study the value of the omissions. Now each year about 50 to be done to the company. The first to do research at the very superficial, but are still relatively successful, for instance, Shen Changcheng, I carefully read the statement, and then brought back to Shenzhen and the urban transportation plans, Shen Changcheng control to see how the location of the property lots , Resulting Shen Changcheng Estate valuable conclusions. Xinjiangtunhe when I have to do with their feet to the Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture of the railway from Urumqi, now find themselves up to funny.



   I feel that the end of 1996 the stock market recovery has been far too hasty move, the central bursts of 12 gold medals seem indifferent to the market, bear market in 1993 with the baptism I sniff out dangerous from the flavor, in considering new investment objectives I set our sights Into the then 96 (8) bonds, 8-year interest-bearing bonds in denominations of 100 yuan, the annual interest rate 8.56 percent, while the prevailing market price is only around 98 yuan, I think the market in the mistakes, bought 96 (8) The spot bonds will be profitable in more than 10 percent, and is absolutely risk-free profits, so I will be in the stock market following the withdrawal of all funds into 96 (8) of treasury bonds was 96 (8) bonds include the entire bond market We all clear trend, I really have tasted is the sweetness of their own research.



   On the creation of value, the most successful research is to find those that have not yet recognized by the market or market erroneous understanding of the industry and listed companies, for instance, in 1996 the emerging computer industry and in 1998 the telecommunications equipment industry, just because of the rise of industry At that time the stock market or their lack of understanding of fundamental has yet to note that overlook the value of investments in these sectors; industry have long recession due to poor performance by the market and their own offensive Xianqi already quietly changing in the industry, such as in 1999 The real estate industry, the liquor industry in 2003. For those who long recession in the industry we should eyes wide open, because no industry has been recession will continue, unless that is indeed a result of technological innovation or social change and ensnared the industry. For those who have been continuous high-growth industries and companies to harbor vigilance, because the extreme prosperity always buried behind the rapid decline of the seeds, any industry will be the role of gravity in the fast-growing but also accumulated the same number of contradictions And problems of these contradictions and problems to a certain time of the outbreak and will certainly reflect them.



   I have several big top escaped but was later does not seem wise, the 1996 top defectors missed Dongtaiapai, 2001 Shenzhen Vanke Korean defectors to the top again missed, summing up his back and in fact the stock market peaked or not Is not so terrible, so long as the hands of the stock does have investment value, for the efforts it has enough self-confidence should be retained, not to ignore market Change. I think the mentality of stability comes from you on a deep understanding of things, With this, you will not be the acts of other people around.



   Those securities companies is also a research report I see, but mainly to see the inside to provide some basic information and a unique perspective, I think that down the years who report a certain value, but not of great value, and found that a significant investment Mainly on its own. A research report to a certain timeliness, it may not be to our hands is the first time the position tend to have a problem, the author may not be able to stand completely independent of the objective to express their position on the results of the analysis.

Combination of technical analysis

As the stock market in the asymmetric information, coupled with China's stock market at this stage at a relatively ineffective stage, in theory, it is a technical analysis of the foundation and conditions for survival. In specific investment practice, we can also observed that such a situation, some of insider trading, with its grasp of the insider information of listed companies to control and manipulate the stock prices of listed companies, may reap excessive profits to achieve its objectives. Therefore, technical analysis by some investors accept there is a market-based, the vast majority of the domestic securities investment analysis of the trading system based on technical analysis is justified.



   However, it is well known technical analysis method has its inherent defects, defects such decision a single technical analysis or technical analysis indicators easy to fall into the "anti-technical analysis" of the trap, we need a variety of technical analysis or a variety of technical analysis Indicators and other methods of analysis of the integrated use. We will be a variety of technical analysis or technical analysis of various indicators of the comprehensive use of technical analysis method called the combination. At present, the technical analysis based securities investment analysis of the trading system is one of the main features of the development characteristics include a combination of technical analysis indicators of technical analysis methods. Especially in the capital, costs and profit and loss and so on, the market is an urgent need to guide the combination of technical analysis indicators.



   Through the many at home and abroad mainly to the technical analysis of investment securities trading systems analysis, we found that combination of technical analysis the main features in the following areas: First, the combination of technical analysis must have a comprehensive approach, which is to Comprehensive technical analysis of the four major elements: price, quantity, time and space. Only contains all the essential elements in order to have a more accurate analysis and judgement of the results. Second, the combination of technical analysis to reflect changes in stock price cycle, including the overall market trend and the cycle of the price cycle of stocks. Experienced technical analysis will find, at different stages of the cycle of technical analysis is different from the performance, or for the performance of the different trading signals, or performance for the accuracy of certain differences, the main reason is that they did not consider cycle Role. In view of the majority of technical analysis indicators and technical analysis methods have not considered cyclical, we think that through the combination of technical analysis can make up for a single method of technical analysis method in the cyclical aspects of the defects. Third, the combination of technical analysis to combine the overall trend of market trends or plate design. We know that the overall market trend or plate movements affect the movements of stocks, and therefore combination of technical analysis must consider the overall market trend or plate movements.



   In addition, construction of a practical combination of technical analysis methods need to consider the user's personality. For different users, because he has different investment and operating strategy, its combination of technical analysis methods are different, have certain personality characteristics. For example, the same technical analysis, if the operating performance of a strategy for the radical, and the other to secure performance, then they will use different methods of technical analysis

Bundles of new shares issued

Contents



   • issuance of new shares package outlined



   • package of three key issues



   • package issued by the two major impact



   • package issued hasten to make a profit



   Issuance of new shares package outlined



   The so-called "package issue" is based on the amount of funding to be a few individual financing for small bundled with new shares issued at the same time, and in the distribution of publicity prior to that issue and fund-raising total number of homes.



   "Bundles of new shares issued," the discussion of popular concern in the market. Speed up the issuance of new shares to two per week, but through the trial will wait for the listed companies are still many, the issue of long cycle has led to the Star-car issue price-earnings ratio of only 6.78 times the theatre scene. How sustainability in the market, subject to accelerate the pace of new shares issued has been imminent, "bundles of new shares issued" model is a possible way.



   Packing three key issues



   Packing three key issues - the scale, pace and manner



   For investors, the most concerned about is the process of packing the funding issue size, distribution and the distribution of rhythm.



   First, the scale of funding, in the first quarter of this year issued 14 A shares, six A-shares in circulation in the size of the share capital of 50 million shares of the following, the average size of financing for about 300 million yuan. According to no less than a quarter of the funding on the scale of the rate of increase in April after the IPO will be the scale of financing at least not less than 2 billion yuan. According to conservative estimates of the rate increase, the scale of new shares issued will be around 25-30 billion, which means that only 8-10 Small Cap will be listed.



   Second, the rhythm from the issue, in accordance with the "packaged spacing issue," the idea that if three Small Cap packaged distribution, you will need about three times that week about the funding needs of 9-10 billion if five small Issued shares-packaged, the monthly need only about 2 issue, that is, every week there are about 1.5 billion financing needs, equivalent to a market share of the funding scale.



   Third, from the distribution, if extended to secondary market investors Placing the way, 3 / week in the packing method will improve the success rate to around 20 percent, while 5 / Fortnight, the package will form In the success rate increased to about 25 percent (according to March data estimates). March since the opening of new shares average margin of 0.046 percent, but if taking into account the new shares listed on the decentralization process chips, is expected to open the first day of the average profit margin will be reduced, and taking into account the mobility of factors, the IPO is expected to pack MORE margins are likely to be lower than market shares listed on the same scale, the average closed margins.



   Package issued by the two major impact



   Package issued by the two major influence - money-oriented and expansion expected



   Since the resumption of placing the secondary market, the hoarding in a large number of purchase, the market does not like the funds, as envisaged in the secondary market flows, and more is back to the bank. If the package of new shares issued by the secondary market to continue placing a comprehensive manner, which will not play the same role in guiding capital. And the use of double compared to pre-distribution of market shares, the issue of new shares in the packaging stock funds in the market to some extent the pressure will be greater. In other words, the same size of the package of new shares will be the same size of the market share of the market have a greater impact.



   Second, the expected expansion from the point of view, small capitalization shares issued does not mean that the package super market to stop the issuance of shares. At present, some Analysts said the financing will very urgent. If taken to the Small Cap market shares, so that the practice, it is estimated that package issued by Small Cap fund-raising scale will not be lower than wait for the issuance of stock market size, or even the size of the overall funding will be greatly increased.



   Packing issued birth of the profit model



   "Packaging issue" likely to hasten the birth of a new profitability model



   It should be noted that "packaging issue" will certainly face the current market expansion pressure, which at present is to promote capital market, will undoubtedly have a certain short-term impact. In the meantime, Small Cap concentrated "package issue" if we can hasten the birth of the new investment profit, the impact on the market may also have a dramatic effect.



   First of all, after the recent market-share listed Xianyihouyang out of the pattern has been to create unique "Wan mode", which became part of the past six months the major investors profit model. Small Cap listing on whether the speech continued, "Wan mode," a cause for concern. If the Small Cap listing on the market expansion pressure drag, the market will have to "pack Small Cap" on the value of bias or discrimination, in its collective down the process, some good quality Small Cap will be forced to Xianyihouyang out of the trend, and once formed its demonstration effect, it can be packaged in this part of the Small Cap formed a unique plate. From a historical experience, the small capitalization shares of speculative funds has been the focus of favored objects, from this point of view, the use of "packaging issue" caused by low stock prices fell in the collection of small capitalization stocks cheap bargaining chip, then most likely The birth of a larger wave of speculative market.



   Secondly, investment analysis, "the new Small Cap Market" and "The market prices" will be shown two types of funds and again against the process. In fact, since 1 14, the value investors Zhongcang object - - low-priced market shares far outperform the market. For the current A-share market continues to occupy a large proportion of speculative funds, in the current round of market estimates of profit is very limited. Therefore, with focus on small capitalization stocks, "packaged for sale," the turning point, speculative funds are likely in the "market share" into adjustment, with the new Small Cap the power play turned a battle. But the premise that the market panic caused by Small Cap Value underestimated, and the big investors because of liquidity considerations do not want to intervene at this time, such a new Small Cap is likely to usher in the big turnaround for speculative opportunities, and may trigger off to a Kind of "packaging issue - panic decrease - the value of recovery - overestimated the value of" new investment mode.

On the road to the investment fundamentals

I do talk about their experiences on it, I was in 1993 the stock market, no computer at that time, his paintings K Line, the paper every night with coordinates of painting. With computers in 1996 to not only painted K-Line. When conditions are very poor, but in good spirits. Zuo Gupiao the first time, basic股评is watching and recreating simple technical analysis of select stocks, good stops on the implementation of strict discipline, in that harsh Bear saved the city itself. 1996 began to do their own research, gradually understand the value of their research, is the beginning of all the 183 stocks all do it again, out of which the second year that the shield 2 / 3 of the future, every new stock issues, I will carefully Look at the brochure, should be included in the list of follow-up study, and no longer have to study the value of the omissions. Now each year about 50 to be done to the company. The first to do research at the very superficial, but are still relatively successful, for instance, Shen Changcheng, I carefully read the statement, and then brought back to Shenzhen and the urban transportation plans, Shen Changcheng control to see how the location of the property lots , Resulting Shen Changcheng Estate valuable conclusions. Xinjiangtunhe when I have to do with their feet to the Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture of the railway from Urumqi, now find themselves up to funny.



   I feel that the end of 1996 the stock market recovery has been far too hasty move, the central bursts of 12 gold medals seem indifferent to the market, bear market in 1993 with the baptism I sniff out dangerous from the flavor, in considering new investment objectives I set our sights Into the then 96 (8) bonds, 8-year interest-bearing bonds in denominations of 100 yuan, the annual interest rate 8.56 percent, while the prevailing market price is only around 98 yuan, I think the market in the mistakes, bought 96 (8) The spot bonds will be profitable in more than 10 percent, and is absolutely risk-free profits, so I will be in the stock market following the withdrawal of all funds into 96 (8) of treasury bonds was 96 (8) bonds include the entire bond market We all clear trend, I really have tasted is the sweetness of their own research.



   On the creation of value, the most successful research is to find those that have not yet recognized by the market or market erroneous understanding of the industry and listed companies, for instance, in 1996 the emerging computer industry and in 1998 the telecommunications equipment industry, just because of the rise of industry At that time the stock market or their lack of understanding of fundamental has yet to note that overlook the value of investments in these sectors; industry have long recession due to poor performance by the market and their own offensive Xianqi already quietly changing in the industry, such as in 1999 The real estate industry, the liquor industry in 2003. For those who long recession in the industry we should eyes wide open, because no industry has been recession will continue, unless that is indeed a result of technological innovation or social change and ensnared the industry. For those who have been continuous high-growth industries and companies to harbor vigilance, because the extreme prosperity always buried behind the rapid decline of the seeds, any industry will be the role of gravity in the fast-growing but also accumulated the same number of contradictions And problems of these contradictions and problems to a certain time of the outbreak and will certainly reflect them.



   I have several big top escaped but was later does not seem wise, the 1996 top defectors missed Dongtaiapai, 2001 Shenzhen Vanke Korean defectors to the top again missed, summing up his back and in fact the stock market peaked or not Is not so terrible, so long as the hands of the stock does have investment value, for the efforts it has enough self-confidence should be retained, not to ignore market Change. I think the mentality of stability comes from you on a deep understanding of things, With this, you will not be the acts of other people around.



   Those securities companies is also a research report I see, but mainly to see the inside to provide some basic information and a unique perspective, I think that down the years who report a certain value, but not of great value, and found that a significant investment Mainly on its own. A research report to a certain timeliness, it may not be to our hands is the first time the position tend to have a problem, the author may not be able to stand completely independent of the objective to express their position on the results of the analysis.

Loansharking the impact on the stock market

Recently on civil borrowing many news reports, read, a feeling of inverted suction Liang Qi, why have such a feeling? »



   According to reports, and other places in Wenzhou, private lending need to pay 1 million monthly interest 80,000, equivalent to 96 per cent of the yield. Although such a high interest rate is terror, but the lending business was very popular, this is the so-called loan sharking.



   From which I have come to two conclusions: First, many enterprises in urgent need of funds, the funds now linked very tense, even if the high interest rates to borrow money, the future capital strand breaks may break out at any time of the incident and the other is the rate of return of such funds Not very high normal, this rate of return not only to compare the general business, even more than a lot of profiteering industry profit margins. I do not know how to deal with companies borrow money from high interest rates, this abnormal return sooner or later they will produce a result that many borrowers disappeared, even if creditors holding collateral to the realization, may also suffer losses.



   Such high interest rates will bring the stock market two bad influence, first, there are opportunities for investors to sell their shares to the pursuit of high interest rates of lending profits, the stock market further reduced the attractiveness of the second is for the future of the economy stable Leaving a hidden danger that once the tension lot of money no longer be able to support enterprises on the stock market how can the exception «Of course, these are Yuanlv, almost no worries that the recent market to see technical or more effective.



   Today is the last trading day this week, the market is very delicate. If we can not放量rose more than 80 points, then K-Line will continue to be a five-week average of repression, the trend next week on less favourable if the market放量up, then the market trend tends to healthy, you can consider the appropriate increase Wharf. As to further the trend, I am more concerned about the technical characteristics of Shanghai First one-day transaction volume of over 100 billion yuan whether, the 20-day MA it can be overcome.



   Millions of funds: to position.



   Stock pond: to position.

2008年7月29日星期二

What the best method of stock ?

Stock only a good way, I never use strange indicators, and five, 10, on the 30th of the average system rules, etc. I only useful, I can easily understand that most people think, and Countermeasures decision. The stock, I still think that a good stock only way you can, regardless of length of the short-term, this approach is,万变不离其宗them.



One condition: the general trend of a different different options.

Rally when the choice of plate type stocks; breakthrough in the consolidation of stocks better; fall when I will not do the plate, even if done, in addition to those outside the stocks leading shares will not be brought to follow.



Two conditions: Select leading stocks.

If the stock was in the lead Qianyou How can we earn less than in other stocks to make money on it »Even if I do the whole plate, there is also a bargaining chip in a more concentrated as the leader. Similarly, even Chaodie rebound, such as a bargaining chip prices are also the most concentrated.



Three conditions: as far as late buying.

This day of the graphics done, we can easily see that the intent will not be confused.



Four conditions: Do not be intimidated by the Yangxian.

Zhangfujuqian there are a few of the stocks in that the day after tomorrow will be good.



Five conditions: reference market.

Analysis of the market than the simple units, multi-Yam-long bull market, bear market yin-yang and more long.



Conditions 6: Do not believe the remarks or to buy more.

After the quantitative risks can be found, the more or buy more than the more up to buy the much greater risk. If the stop-loss dropped in, decisive sold.



7 conditions: homeopathy community.

But to understand the logic extremes meet, the stock rose 56 days up tomorrow? »Points: all all all, the relatively large volume  Huan Shoulv are very important, I would even like to buy the day's changing hands Rate of 15% -20% of the shares. This is also related to whether the profit you can smooth out  compared to the larger funds than people.



Some simple experience: high pulled out under the shadow line should not think that is a good thing, it's probably because I am part of a bargaining chip in again after La Shanglai for me tomorrow to prepare for shipping. Elevated high Hengpan or after the Dow fell, or fell after the Dow Elevated fear that the shipments are recent signs, especially the latter that has Wuxinlianzhan